Unsolved Mysteries

Trainers tackle the harness racing puzzlers that have handicappers scratching their heads.

Story by Keith McCalmont

There’s more than one way to handicap a horse race.

Speed, class, post-position and consistency are all key factors when trying to determine a winner, but there are also a number of variables that keep punters guessing, such as those nuggets of knowledge that can be gleamed from observing equine body language or the subtleties of an equipment change.

As a way of helping handicappers read between the program lines, TROT reached out to a trio of trainers, Carmen Auciello, Rod Hughes and Gord Remmen and asked for their insight into some of the minutiae that can turn a losing ticket into a winning one.

Auciello, currently top of the table with 22 wins on the WEG circuit, enjoyed a career year in 2013 posting 120 victories and over $2.1 million in earnings.

Hughes, trainer of the celebrated multiple O’Brien award winner San Pail, keeps a smaller stable than Auciello, finishing 2013 with a record of 7-5-4 from 54 starts, and boasts career earnings of over $3.7 million.

Remmen launched his career in Western Canada before making his way to Ontario in 2008. He boasts career earnings of over $6 million from 575 wins.

1. How to interpret vet scratches

Is coming off of a vet scratch a red flag for a horse that you may not want to bet?

Hughes suggests paying attention to race previews, pre-race interviews or Twitter to determine why a horse was previously scratched.

“There are a lot of reasons a horse could be off. It could have been a fever that morning or they were just off their grain, and it could just be a coincidence that it happened on race day and they had to scratch... so they may not have missed that many days jogging at all,” he says.

“A vet scratch could be as simple as a horse tied up, which is when their muscle enzymes increase causing their muscles to become stiff. It takes a good week for them to come out of it,” says Auciello. “If it’s a sick scratch it’s usually a virus or infection or tie up and if it’s a lame scratch it could be something as simple as a puss pocket in the foot.

“A lot of times it takes three or four days to draw the infection out of the foot and then you’re about a week getting them back sound enough to race. After that they’re 100 percent again. There are many issues that can arise that aren’t as major as some people think.”

Auciello would point handicappers to the amount of time off between starts as a way to assess the severity of the vet scratch.

“If they only missed eight days and were right back, then I’d feel they got the horse right and he’s okay,” explains Auciello. “But, if the horse is off for well over a month, I’d think the horse might need a start and maybe the problem was more severe and it would be better to watch for a start than spend your money.”

Hughes offers an optimistic approach to recovery from a vet scratch.

“I think trainers are good nowadays at getting a horse fit to come back for their next start,” says Hughes. “I don’t think there are a lot of trainers that try to race them back (to fitness.) There are so many treatments out there now.”

Remmen also prefers not to overreact when it comes to a vet scratch sick.

“A horse that had a temperature two days before you go to race it and you treat it, that’s fine. A vet scratch sick does not concern me as much as a vet scratch lame,” says Remmen. “It’s a long haul to Woodbine just to go for a trip around the racetrack. You have to be on your toes and ready at any time, never mind coming off of a two or three week layoff.”

2. How much time off between races is too much?

At what point does a layoff mean it’s time to play against a returning competitor?

“Anything over three weeks off would scare me,” says Auciello. “If they are racing on the third week, I wouldn’t be too worried about it, but into four or five weeks off and you’d have to think the trainer is just going for a tightener.”

Hughes suggests taking each case on a horse by horse basis.

“There are a lot of horses that race just as well every other week, while others can go out each week. I don’t think time off is as big an issue anymore,” he says. “That said, if you’re coming back off a scratch, you’d like to face lighter company or if you could pick a condition where they can drop down a bit it would be nice.”

Hughes, who knows a thing or two about getting a horse back to the track after a layoff, suggests that horses can be back to their best sooner today than in previous years.

“So many trainers have good training tracks available to them, so even if they’re off three weeks, it’s not much for a trainer to get these horses spun back into shape,” he says.

Auciello offers a seasonal alternative to that theory.

“In the summertime it’s a bit easier to get a horse trained up and keep them fit, but in the winter, especially with the winter we’ve had, the tracks are not great and you have to ship in to Woodbine at all different hours and they’re just not real tight,” he says.

Remmen prefers to take the situation on a case-by-case basis.

“Each horse is different, and some horses do need to be drilled, but I have horses that would probably love to have two weeks off with no training and would race just fine,” he says.

In fact, sometimes a layoff can be a solution rather than a problem.

“I hate putting a horse right back in off a bad performance,” explains Remmen. “You have to think there’s some reason for it and it’s up to me to make them better. By just throwing him in the next week and hoping he gets better is kind of stupid.

3. From qualifiers to the winner’s circle

Understanding a trainer’s pattern for bringing a horse into a race can be helpful.

“I try to qualify my own horses twice and generally the only time I don’t is if they came a good last quarter or last half. I’m patient with them,” says Remmen. “I don’t like to get to that first race thinking they need a race. If they’ve had two good qualifiers, I think they should be very competitive in their first race if I have them entered right.”

When it comes to winning at first asking, Auciello likes to see a strong winning effort in the qualifier.

“I like to see them win and win convincingly. I’m not too worried about time. Usually in qualifiers, horses are packed in against equal caliber horses or same age and same sex,” he says. “So, if you see a maiden filly that had her first qualifier at Woodbine last week and she won by five lengths going away with a decent last quarter, even if the mile was only in two minutes, I like to see that. It means she beat up on other horses in the same range and category that she is in.”

A slow final time in a qualifier doesn’t phase Auciello in the least.

“A lot of guys when they qualify, like to bury them and sit them at the back and sprint home with a fast quarter,” he explains. “I just want to see some speed at some point in the mile. Show me a :27 or :28 quarter at some point and it usually shows me they’re ready.”

Hughes concurs with Auciello.

“Some trainers like to have them on their toes and sharp for qualifiers and then there are trainers like myself where sometimes I’ve trained them faster than they go in the qualifier,” he says. “I just want them to show up and put in a nice performance off the gate and not make any mistakes. With ‘Pail’ I’ll often have trained him faster than I’ve qualified him.”

Auciello also suggests that handicappers can learn a lot about a horse by watching the qualifier.

“The best tool is to watch the qualifier videos which are available on Woodbine’s YouTube channel. Watch how the horse performs on the track and see if he was all out, driving, or if he had lots left,” offers Auciello. “There’s no money on the line in a qualifier so it’s pretty silly to extend them. Most guys are qualifying the horse well within themselves and while it can be tough to tell how much they had left, if you watch the video you can tell by the driver’s body language if they were all out, loose lined, or whether they were well in hand and had something left in the tank.”

4. Who is best equipped to win the race?

Ear plugs, shoeing, cheek rolls, open or closed bridle... the myriad of changes a trainer can make all play a part in the performance of the horse.

“The biggest thing I look at is hopples. I had a horse come in recently where I thought the hopples were too tight, so I let them out an inch and a half and that can make a big difference for some pacers,” says Auciello. “If the hopple is too short, it’s tough for them to get that long stride some of them need to give them a bit more speed over the course of the mile.”

For Hughes, it’s gotta be the shoes.

“I’m a big believer in aluminum shoes and I think that’s usually a sign they’re ready for some speed,” says Hughes. “Aluminum shoes have a little more grab on them and they’re lighter. As the old saying goes, lighter is faster.”

But, Auciello takes the opposite stance.

“I don’t think there’s many shoes that can make a horse go faster,” objects Auciello. “Some might keep a horse off a knee and in turn they might race better, but as far as making them faster, I don’t see it.”

One equipment change that both Auciello and Hughes are keen on is a closed bridle.

“I wear a closed bridle on most of mine and when I get a new horse, I’ll throw a closed bridle on them,” says Auciello. “It gives the impression you’re going to be more aggressive with them. Usually if you want a horse to leave off the gate, you put a closed bridle on them so they focus. I tend to do that with pretty much all of mine.”

“When a trainer closes them up they can be a little more focused,” agrees Hughes. “When they get a closed bridle it can sharpen them.”

For Remmen, he sees almost any equipment change as an opportunity for a horse to improve.

“If I make a change, it’s to make the horse better, whether it’s a shoeing change or an equipment change. Any change should be considered a benefit,” he says.

5. How to assess warm ups and post parade

Many handicappers watch the post parade, but how many know what they should be looking for?

“You never like to see a pacer run. They should just come out and pace along. If they’re running in the hopples, that could be an issue,” starts Hughes.

When it comes to pre-race appearance, an alert horse is one primed to win in Hughes’ estimation.

“I like to see my horses come out right on the lines with their ears up. If a driver has to get them to relax while jogging around, I think that’s a good sign. I would rather see a driver trying to keep a horse quiet than trying to rev them up,” offers Hughes.

Auciello suggests that keeping notes on a horse’s pre-race appearance could pay huge dividends.

“If you watched a horse the week before and he was out there acting quiet and lazy, and the lines were loose and then a new guy has him and he’s on the bit and aggressive, then I’d think this horse might be worth a look tonight,” says Auciello.

One pre-race trait that can worry a handicapper is seeing a trotter break stride in warm up.

“With trotters, it could be nerves if the horse is a bit high strung and sometimes they need to get that out of their system and I’d rather it happen before the race than during. There are some horses that are a bit quirky like that and come out and be a little pacey or full of run,” says Hughes.

“Horses on parade have just stepped onto the track and a lot of them can be wound up and want to go faster than the driver wants to,” says Auciello.

Remmen makes the case that unless you know the horse from previous post parades, assessing pre-race readiness is tricky business.

“I like that fine line between sharp and relaxed, but I’ve seen horses that looked awful on post parade, seem to be half on the run, but then go behind the gate and they look super,” says Remmen. “So, I can’t say I’d draw a line through the horse just because they broke on post parade. It all depends on past experience.”

6. Whether or not weather matters

Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays handicappers from their search for a score.

And for Remmen, weather can matter in the outcome of a race.

“Out west, we had a dirt track, and when the track was muddy it was actually softer. A lot of the time here, when you get a sloppy track, it’s actually quite hard underneath and a lot of horses don’t appreciate that,” says Remmen.

“We’ve seen this winter where a frozen racetrack has really hindered horses that have foot issues,” offers Remmen. “That type of horse has a chance to perform better on a warmer day when the track has some cushion, so I do try to race some horses less during the winter.

“You enter a horse hoping it’s going to be nice and do what you can shoeing-wise and with prep work to take away the soreness, but if they end up on a frozen racetrack it doesn’t bode well for the horse when the track is that hard.”

With warmer weather just around the corner, Hughes also makes the point that some horses may be ready to outperform their winter stats.

“In spring time, some of these horses feel a lot better when they hit a softer track. When they come off of three or four weeks in a row racing on a frozen track and then they hit a ten degree warmer night and that track is a little softer, you can look for a horse that had sore feet to step up a little bit,” he says.

But, how does one pick out a horse that might be in need of a softer surface?

“You see the odd horse not really finishing their mile off and maybe the trainer has changed the bridle or shoes without success, but then spring hits and that horse just feels a little more cushion on the track and their feet aren’t stinging so they’ll finish their miles off a lot stronger,” notes Hughes.

For Auciello, it’s the wind whistling up the homestretch that causes concern.

“The biggest bias at Woodbine is the wind and a lot of the time front-end horses are no good when it’s really windy coming into the lane,” notes Auciello. “On a sloppy track, they can end up going a little faster than they should in the first half and get a little bit tired at the end. On wet or windy nights, I’d look for horses that can come from the back with quick last quarters.”

7. Droppers

If a horse seems fit and somewhat capable of winning, why might a trainer drop them in class?

“It usually means these guys want to win,” says Auciello. “Unless you see drastic lameness or a real change in the horse’s body language on post parade that might be a bit of a red flag, but for the most part if the horse finished third for $20,000 they probably just want to win and drop him in for $15,000.”

Hughes takes a slightly different approach.

“You have to be a little suspicious, I think,” he laughs. “Maybe the trainer wants to lose that horse, but it could be for a good reason. Maybe the owner wants out and/or just wants to keep winning, so they move down and you get lesser company which is good for the horse, and offers a chance for that owner to lose that horse and move off to something else.”

Hughes rightly points out that the more information available to bettors, the better.

“I really miss the HPI set up at the track with pre-race interviews in the paddock,” says Hughes. “I wish they could get back to that. You don’t know what’s happening on the farm. Maybe they’re not thinking long term with that horse anymore.”

Count Remmen amongst the cynics of this group.

“I would be suspicious. That usually means there’s a problem with the horse and the trainer and owner want to get him down to where they are more competitive and if they have to lose him that’s okay too. Red lights would flash for me,” says Remmen.

Granted, Remmen does offer a bit of a dilemma for handicappers struggling not to fence sit.

“The trainer could be pulling a bluff on you too. You don’t see it that much here lately as there’s not much claiming going on anymore, but it would probably scare me off of claiming the horse,” he laughs.

And then, with a look back at a previous question, he adds, “Now if that horse (a dropper) made a break in the post parade and he hasn’t before and he’s dropped in price that would bother me and I’d cross a line through him then.”

8. Cheap speed or late action?

You’re searching the race lines for a potential price play and come up with two options.

The first option is a horse that showed gate speed and faded to mid-pack, and the second option is a horse that wasn’t involved early but closed to finish mid-pack.

Which horse is the better play?

“At Woodbine, I wouldn’t want cheap speed because that horse will get gobbled up in the stretch,” offers Remmen. “I’d prefer a horse that shows some finish. Maybe the reason he lagged behind was the circumstances of the race and if he gets in a race where the flow is better or has a better post and can be closer to the pace that might be enough to get him into the top three.

“But, to me, a horse that’s stopping is only going to stop again unless they’re changing strategy. To that end, an equipment change or a driver change might be able to convert that cheap speed to controllable speed this time.

Hughes also prefers the horse with late brush.

“If the closer came from the seven to ten hole and they raced him off the back and he finished strong it could be all he needs is an inside post,” says Hughes. “If he did have an inside post, maybe he got shuffled and had to come late. I think the serious gamblers would watch the tape and even go back a line before that to see how he raced best.”

For Auciello, the better play depends on the type of track.

“On a bigger track, I’d like to see the closing speed, but at a half mile track, I’d rather see a horse with front end speed even though he got tired the week before,” he says. “Maybe there was a reason for it…he could have been used too hard or maybe he had to come first up and got tired out or maybe got locked in.”

And just like his colleague, Auciello touts the tape.

“Watch the replay. The program doesn’t always show if a horse got locked in or run into and interfered with,” he says.

9. What to look for in the program

The racing program offers up a myriad of info on the evening’s combatants.

Some handicappers hone in on final race times, while others look for a horse that had a bad trip but closed with a quick final quarter.

But the one part of the program that all of our conditioners agree on is trainer-driver percentages, which the Woodbine program prints in a neat chart beneath each race denoting the number of starts, win percent and return on investment.

“Looking at that driver-trainer combination and knowing which combinations work well together is important,” says Hughes. “Even consider the previous question about a horse racing off the back, maybe a different driver was on that horse last week and, I hate to say it, but some drivers get holes and some don’t.”

Auciello nods along to that line of thinking.

“Changing a driver might mean a change in tactics which can benefit a horse sometimes more than class change,” he says.

Remmen is quick to tout the post position as the most important info listed in the program.

“If a horse is too far out in post 8,9,10 on the big track or post 7 and 8 on the smaller track, for them to get into the race, the horse really has to extend a lot the first quarter and then they don’t have as much left to come home with,” he says.

Trying to bring a horse from the back of the bus is often too big a challenge.

“They’re just so far out of it that they have to have everything go their way from fast fractions to good flow...it’s just too many factors going against them,” says Remmen.

And with a laugh, adds, “Most of my horses only have one move in them. If they use it leaving, they won’t have much coming home!!”

If there’s one lesson that handicappers understand well, it’s how important it is for things to work out during the race. It’s also what makes the puzzle so much fun to solve.