Picking Winners

So many decisions and so little time. That sums up the working life of a catch driver. The trainer hands you the lines eight minutes before the race, shares a few words of wisdom, and off you go. As a horse player, is there any wisdom to be garnered from this experience? We asked seven of Canada’s top drivers to take us aboard the bike and share their thoughts on what they look for from horses when they first hit the track and the key decisions they must make to find the winner’s circle.

By Bernard Tobin

Once you hit the track, the pre-race checklist is longer than a 64-inch hobble. Is your horse sound? Is he sharp and on the bit or dull and listless? Is that head nod a concern or will he warm out of it?

Once you have a feel for how much horse you have, it’s time to swing past the tote board and check out the competition. When you read the program you thought your horse had a shot, but the betting public is hammering him and he’s now the favourite. It’s time for a strategy check. Whose helmet do you want to follow? What horses do you need to avoid being caught behind? Does your horse have tactical speed? Maybe you should leave or will another driver string you out and make you pay dearly for the lead?

The clock is ticking and off you go to the starting gate. Your plan is set – surely things will transpire as you had planned when the wings of the starting gate fold.

But odds are they won’t. “Things happen. It’s horse racing,” says driver Marc Campbell, a finalist for the 2011 O’Brien Award of Horsemanship.

POST PARADE & SCORING DOWN

Can drivers determine whether they have a live horse when scoring down? Are there signs that a bettor should be looking for, whether they are perched in the grandstand or home on their couch? Not all drivers share the same theories, but they all believe that you can learn a lot during post parade.

“You can definitely tell if your horse is good,” says driver Luc Ouellette, who’s won more than 8400 races and $134 million in his career. “When you get on the track you see if he’s acting healthy, if he’ll get on the bit and be in the reins. It just takes a lap or two around the track.”

“I look for a horse that’s right up on the bit, who’s sharp and whose ears are going forward,” offers Paul MacDonell, who piloted 2008 Horse of the Year Somebeachsomewhere. He admits it’s a lot easier to evaluate a horse if you’re his regular driver and can compare his appearance week to week.

Three-time O’Brien Driver of the Year Jody Jamieson says that’s certainly the case for 2010 Metro Pace winning pacer Mystician, a horse he drives regularly. “With a lot of horses, I like to see them being quiet and relaxed in the post parade, but with Mystician he’s good when he’s really pulling on me,” he says. “He’s been inconsistent, but I can tell when he’s good – he’s wanting to go and grabbing onto the bit.”

For the sharp handicapper, there’s lots to learn during those few minutes prior to post, agrees 23-year-old Scott Zeron, who earned $8.1 million and topped the Canadian charts with 539 wins in 2011. “When you’re looking out from the grandstand, you want to see the driver with a tight line on the horse, but you don’t want him flat out in the bike,” says Zeron. “You don’t want the horse getting too worked up in the post parade. He can shut his air off, choke down, and consequences like tying-up could happen.”

Mike Saftic says drivers have to pay special attention when sitting behind a horse for the first time. “You can get a good early feel, but they can trick you – sometimes it turns out that they always feels like that,” says the Campbellville, Ontario resident who has earned more than $2 million in purses annually for 22 consecutive years. “But if you’ve been driving that horse for the last three or four weeks, you can tell if he’s on top of his game or whether he’s a little dull. Once you know the horse, it’s not hard to tell how he acts.”

Saftic recounts a recent drive where his horse’s form was significantly different from the previous week. “She raced a good second when I was driving her the first time. She was running out a little, but she felt good and was on the muscle. A week later, I could tell in the post parade that she was going to run out leaving the gate. I knew she wasn’t going to get away and I just didn’t have a good feel. She was one of the favourites and sure enough, she got away eighth.”

Keith Clark says he could always read whether 71-race-winner and Hall of Famer As Promised was on his game. With 6,000 driving wins and two O’Brien Awards for Horsemanship under his belt, he should know a thing or two about evaluating horses. “You could tell right way when he was feeling good. He would take a hold of you, his ears were up... that’s when he was on the top of his game.”

Clark says drivers get to know a horse’s tendencies. “Sometimes they are playing or shying from stuff – they’re really alert. Something moves and it scares them right away.”

And he adds that some horses have lameness problems and a regular driver can determine if the horse is sound enough to deliver a top performance. “They all have little issues, but a regular driver knows whether the horse is better that night. Drivers that drive a lot have a good idea of what they have, especially if they have driven the horse before.”

DRIVING THE FAVOURITE

Some drivers feel pressure when sitting behind the favourite, but not Jamieson. “If you give me the best horse in the race every time, I don’t think I am going to get beat,” says the confident 35-year old reinsman. But favourites he drives get beat all the time as Jamieson knows too well the perils of getting his horse parked through hot fractions, caught in traffic or locked in.

“There are all kinds of scenarios that get you beat, but I would rather have the favourite. I think there is more pressure on a 10-1 shot having to go up against the favourite,” he insists, noting the longer-odds horses are usually short on something, whether it be pedigree, talent or current form.

Jamieson says a driver may be lucky to be listed on the best horse in a race according to the program, but that horse may not be the best that night. “There are just so many factors that come into play. I think that’s what makes this game so great. There’s the horse, the driver, the trip, the other horses in the race and the trips those horses get... There are just so many things to consider.”

One thing that Jamieson thinks bettors need to keep a sharp eye on when assessing favourites is the trainer’s record. “You need to look for the top outfits, those who run a good barn. Generally, those horses are relatively consistent and are good week to week. That makes my job a lot easier and it’s going to make the public’s picks better.”

Ouellette believes the racetrack is always a big factor when driving a favourite. “If a horse is not a good front runner, that works against you at Woodbine,” explains the four-time Breeders Crown winner. “You have a quarter mile straightaway and then you have the turn. If you are not near the front, you have to be careful with a favourite. When racing from behind, you almost have to go first-up because if you try for second-over, there might be a couple of horses that will clog up the outer flow.”

When it comes to driving the public’s pick on a half-miler like Red Shores Racetrack & Casino at the Charlottetown Driving Park, Campbell says he’s gunning for the lead 95 per cent of the time. “I want to be on the front or as close to the front as possible.”

He admits that some horses don’t race well near the lead or if they’re driven aggressively, but when “bettors have put all that money on me and the horse, you have to give that horse a shot. I think it looks really bad if you get caught in with a favourite and you finish fourth.”

Ouellette notes that drivers are often asked by their trainers to be extra patient with young horses and not overdrive them. “Sometimes, a trainer will ask you to stay in with a young horse and avoid going first-up,” he says, explaining that the drivers want to respect a trainer’s wishes, but they also have a responsibility to the betting public who have supported the horse with their wallets. “If you stay in, sometimes you will get out on time and he’ll win, other times you don’t get out and you finish second or third.”

MacDonell says bettors also need to understand that horses are not always on their game every night they hit the track. “Sometimes you might get a warning from the trainer that the horse is not good tonight,” explains MacDonell, a multiple Metro Pace winner. “When I’m driving favourites, I think it’s my responsibility to make sure the horse is in play some point in the mile. Even if there are warning signs, you owe it to the betting public to give that horse a good race.”

Zeron adds it’s important to respect horseplayers’ betting choices, but drivers have to remember the strengths and weaknesses of their horses. “Driving a favourite can really change your perspective as a driver,” he says. “Sometimes a horse will be suitable coming off the pace and that’s how you have driven him every week. But after you start winning a couple of races, people start betting them and you have to change your strategy.

“You don’t want to get in traffic trouble where other horses on the outside are going to end up costing you the race. So you have to change and drive a little more aggressively.” Sometimes the change in tactics can get you beat and it’s a direct result of the pressure that Zeron says is part of driving the top choice.

Saftic says drivers also have to be aware of a false favourite – a horse that has benefitted from good trips in recent races and now is being asked to deliver at low odds. “That’s a situation where one week a horse sits in the two-hole, gets a perfect trip and gets out to win. The next week he sits in the three-hole and splits horses late to win,” explains Saftic. “Then comes the third week. He’s a 4-5 favourite and you know the only reason he’s won back-to-back is because he’s tripped out. Now you are caught in the three-hole and you end up pulling first-up and you get nothing.”

Saftic says that’s an angle experienced handicappers often play. “That’s what they look for – horses that have won off a perfect trip. Those horses are usually bet down the next week and real handicappers will bet against them.”

WATCHING THE TOTE BOARD

The tote board is one the most important tools for a driver.

“You may see a horse taking a lot of money that you might not have had a lot of respect for when you were reading the program,” says MacDonell. “Sometimes the betters are a little sharper than the drivers and I have to respect that horse in the race.”

Ouellette takes a long look every time he passes the tote board while warming up a horse. “I really want to see what the bettors think,” he says. “With two minutes to go, I want to see which horse they are playing. Sometimes they’ll come up with a live horse that I didn’t think was very good.”

Campbell admits bettors help determine how he’ll race his horse. “With simulcasting, a lot of bettors see more races than I do. They’re pretty good classifiers and if they think my horse has a shot, he usually does.”

Zeron likes to memorize numbers. “When you’re racing horses, there’s so much going through your head. Every time I go past the tote board I pick out the top three horses that are being bet and I memorize those horses and I look for those horses.”

Zeron says his race strategy will often unfold based on where those horses are in the race. Depending on whether he’s driving a short-priced horse or a long shot, he’ll be making split-second tactical decisions – what horses he wants to follow and which ones he’ll let go if he lands on the front end – based on those numbers.

“We (drivers) have our opinions on which horses should be favoured. Some may have gotten locked in last week and looked loaded, but are going off at 10-1 because they didn’t get a cheque last race,” explains Zeron.

But he stresses the public’s opinion is really important, especially when a projected 5-1 shot is bet down to 3-5.

“You really have to watch that horse because the driver is going to have to change their driving style, and drive the horse aggressively. At the same time, if you’re on the front, it’s important to know if you have the 3-5 favourite coming and judge whether or not to let them go.”

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