I know that plenty of consignors in Kentucky are getting a little nervous now since we’re in the countdown to the start of the Lexington Selected Yearling Sale. Being a bit jittery before sale time is a natural and understandable condition for consignors. So much depends on what happens during the minute or two a yearling is in the sales ring.
The breeder must pay upfront in anticipation of a later reward. You must acquire a broodmare, of course, and book her to a stallion of your choice. For these yearlings, that probably took place in the fall of 2006. The mare was bred in 2007 and there are many costs involved in breeding, from shipping semen to veterinary charges. If all goes well, the mare has a foal in 2008.
If all continues to go well, that foal grows up to be a yearling and is led into the sale ring tonight or on the following evenings.
So the breeder has been paying and anticipating, paying and anticipating, for several years to get to this point. No wonder they’re a little nervous.
I know the feeling. I’ve sold yearlings and nothing quite enhances the value of a yearling like ownership. I’d like to think that my yearlings are all worth a million bucks, but the market tells me otherwise.
As a seller of yearlings, I’ve been both disappointed and delighted. You never quite know how the cookie crumbles. The market is a great equalizer.
You’d think that if there is a public auction with hundreds of people attending, there are enough prospective customers that your yearling will command the market value. But I think that the late John Hayes, former president of the Canadian Trotting Assn., is credited with the saying that the purchaser of a yearling is perhaps the dumbest person at the sale.
When a yearling sold for $50,000, the buyer might congratulate himself on making a shrewd purchase, but Hayes would say, “Consider this: there are hundreds of people at this sale and you’re the only one---the only one out of all those people---who thought that yearling was worth $50,000. So who is right: you or the hundreds of others?”
It does make you think.
There is plenty of good stock available for purchase in the coming evenings in Kentucky. You name it and you can find it in the catalog. I have not pored over each horse and each page, but I know it’s there. In fact, in a cursory check I even found one trotting filly that made my heart beat a little faster. I even watched her video and liked what I saw.
Her name or hip number? No, you’re not going to get that. But I will tell you that after the sale which one she is. And then we can see if my hunch comes back to bite me in the butt next year or makes me seem like a genius.
That’s the beauty of yearling sales; they are a real crap shoot and you never know what you’ve got until they march in behind the starting gate for the first time.