Woodbine Racetrack will present a $40,000 guaranteed pool for its early Pick-4 Thursday evening, and it figures to be another challenging task of weeding out the

contenders from the pretenders in Races 4 through 7.

Woodbine Entertainment Group Racing Analyst Mike Hamilton has handicapped the four races and offers his thoughts on constructing a Pick-4 ticket for tonight:

Race 4

Ten relatively inexperienced trotters will line up in the first leg, including shippers from Pocono and Indiana Downs. I often side with shippers in hopes of catching a price before the local bettors latch onto them, but in this case there a number of factors that lead me to believe that a two-time Woodbine starter might get the job done. Let’s look at the contenders.

The author of the Horseplayer’s Journal selected #7 LUCERNE DE VIE as his top pick, and if your bankroll allows she’d be a good 'longshot' to include. She is coming off her best ever clocking, however, I can’t get too excited about a mare with a 1-for-29 when we’re looking for a winner. #4 BOUND FOR FAME has relocated from Indiana for trainer Don Eash who won with six of his last 15 starters in the Hoosier State. This one is coming off a win but beat just five rivals and some were optional $8,000 claimers. He’s worth including but certainly no 'single.' I’m banking that #8 ZEUS LIGHTNING will get off to a better start this week than was the case last week when he was handled cautiously at the gate, 11 lengths off the lead at the quarter and eventually second under the wire with the last quarter in :28. He was good enough to win despite a break on Nov. 15 and I would guess that he could be handled more aggressively now that he has that 'clean line.'

Summary:

I’m using #8 ZEUS LIGHTING as my Prime Pick but if your budget allows, consider adding numbers 4,3,7,9,10 in that order or preference.

Race 5

This single elimination for the Autumn Stakes (2YO Filly Pace) is anything but an open and shut case.

#2 GIDDY UP BELLA has been in 1:54 and shows last quarters under 28, including one over a 'sloppy' track last week. #3 SIGN O THE RAINBOW will make her WEG debut after an aborted start to the season in June and two November preps at Western Fair. She has been nominated to the Silver Reign, Miss Vera Bars and Blizzard so its not hard to imagine her beating a group of maidens and one-time winners. #6 MACH LADY aired in her debut for Bill Davis and could come right back. There was nothing wrong with that 1:58.4 mile over a 'sloppy' track but she will have to crank it up a notch. #10 ST LADS PEEPER strikes me as the kind of filly that could overcome post 10 so I’ll use her as the Prime Pick. She’s a monster of a filly, wears a 61-1/2 hopple (and they came in one inch for her last start), and of course she is a sister to the very talented St Lads Popcorn who put away over $600k.

Summary:

There aren’t any obvious toss-outs in this field, and being an elimination race - with the richer final coming next week – you might want to consider hitting the “All” button. If you want to keep the cost of your ticket down, consider rolling the dice on #10 ST LADS PEEPER in the belief that she is one talented filly and may not head to the back of the bus as many others would from Post 10 in an elimination race.

Race 6

The race office must have worked overtime to come up with this ultra competitive field of 10 which has been seeded it as the third leg of the Pick-4. But hey, it’s their job to make our job all that much tougher. Who’d want to bet on four races with odds-on favourites? There certainly won’t be one in here.

#2 MODERN MAGIC gets top billing based on a number of factors. There is no single reason to 'love' her but I do 'like' the fact that she has four siblings who are ALL winners, two wins of hecircuit, a long rest (February to November) followed by four preps, and a 27.1 last quarter while 'going forward' in the most recent race. If you’re not sold on her, consider #1 RACY GAL HANOVER who has been in 1:52.3 and now draws inside; #3 MI AMADA who retained Jamieson; #6 RUB N TUB coming off a tough first-over (but losing) battle; #7 MCGAIN N MCGAIN who is very consistent and who did manage to hold on to win this class last week; #9 WARRAWEE LIL coming off a battling second; or #10 EL MISS ACES who will need some luck to win from Post 10. Those last six options all have potential and should be included on any 'big' ticket but its 8-1 morning line starter MODERN MAGIC that looks to be rounding into form and thus my top pick.

Summary: This is the 'trouble' leg. I like #2 MODERN MAGIC but not enough to go all-in.

Race 7

It doesn’t get any easier in the final leg where we’re looking at 10 trotters, the most accomplished of which has won two races. For better or for worse, I’ve narrowed this one down to two starters. #4 MR BOYD is an intriguing option in his first start north of the border. While its true that current owner and trainer Mark Gingrich purchased this horse on November 28, he did train the horse for another owner in August and September. The sometimes troubled trotter went 4-2-1-0 during that stint with the Ontario-born Gingrich. It's certainly encouraging that he went from finishing ninth by 24 in the last start for the previous trainer (July 22) to winning by three and three-quarter lengths in the debut for Gingrich (August 18), even if the poor finish was at the 'Big M' and the win against easier company at Pocono. It would appear that Gingrich has the key, but is even a flawless effort from this guy good enough to win here? If you’re skeptical, consider #7 ZINDI who was good enough to beat NW1 types in his recent debut for Herb Holland. He was a $15,000 bargain at Harrisburg and under Zeron’s handling he may climb the ladder very quickly. One thing that I really like about him is the fact that the previous owners made the third and final sustaining payment to the Goodtimes and Canadian Trotting Classic. It looks like they had high hopes, or at least hopes that he’d come around, before eventually giving up and selling him at Harrisburg.

Summary: I wouldn’t play any ticket that didn’t have BOTH of these two selections. You can add others if your budget allows but these two are a must.

Mike’s Pick-4 Ticket

Race 4: 4,7,8,10

Race 5: 3,6,10

Race 6: 2,3,6,7

Race 7: 4,7

Cost: $96

Options:

If its available in your region, consider the 20 cent base bet for a $19.20 investment or live dangerously and single either one of #8 ZEUS LIGHTNING (Race 4) or #10 ST LADS PEEPER (Race 5).

To view the entries for the card, click here.

(WEG)